Experts Estimate RZD's Losses Due to Coal Quotas
Impact of Fuel Transportation on the Railway Monopoly’s Economy
IEDT: RZD’s Financial Losses Due to Coal Quotas to Exceed 200 Billion Rubles
Russian Railways (RZD) is expected to incur financial losses exceeding 200 billion rubles in 2025 due to the prioritization of coal exports to the East, according to calculations by analysts from a research center within the monopoly's structure.
According to the Institute for Transport Economics and Development (IEDT, part of RZD), Russia’s GDP losses from the restriction of high-value-added freight due to agreements between RZD and six coal-producing regions—Kuzbass, Yakutia, Buryatia, Khakassia, Irkutsk Region, and Tuva—will exceed 100 billion rubles. Meanwhile, railway monopoly losses are estimated at 206 billion rubles. RBC has obtained an IEDT report containing expert assessments of the impact of coal agreements on RZD’s economy and financial standing, and a source familiar with the calculations has confirmed its accuracy.
Coal exports in 2024 totaled 177.6 million tons, down from 195.8 million tons the previous year. Southern exports (via ports) nearly halved, dropping from 31.6 million tons to 17.1 million tons, while northwestern exports fell from 56.4 million tons to 49 million tons. In contrast, eastern exports increased from 107.7 million tons to 111.5 million tons, doubling over the past decade. IEDT analysts point out that approximately 70% of coal from the Far Eastern regions is exported, while domestic consumption relies on coal transported from more western regions, including Kuzbass. “The rise in inefficient transportation limits exports of both coal and non-coal cargo,” experts from the RZD-affiliated institute state.
The volume of unshipped high-tech freight—containerized cargo, chemicals, ferrous metals, fertilizers, grain, and petroleum products—due to coal prioritization reaches 15 million tons, according to IEDT’s report. Analysts emphasize that a presidential decree from May 2024 mandates a minimum 60% increase in non-commodity, non-energy exports by 2030 compared to 2023 levels. “Accordingly, this requires a shift in transport capacity allocation in favor of non-coal cargo,” they conclude.
The full article is available on the website of RBC.
Photo: Denis Petrov / RIA Novosti