According to the Institute for Transport Economics and Development (IEDT), in October 2025 coal producers failed to provide 1.7 million tonnes of the cargo they had declared for loading, including 1.1 million tonnes for export. Earlier, in September, as reported by IEDT, the shortfall was even more significant: coal companies did not supply 2.5 million tonnes of cargo under approved applications, including 1.9 million tonnes for export. Even the eastern direction, which remains the most in-demand among shippers, received 700 thousand tonnes less coal in both October and September.

According to IEDT's assessment, a 12.8% reduction in the railway tariff in the northwestern and southern directions would reduce shippers’ costs by only $2.5 per tonne and would not have any significant effect on the economics of coal supplies.

For comparison, IEDT analysts calculated the impact on logistics costs from lower rental rates for open-top railcars and reduced transshipment rates in the ports of Taman and Ust-Luga. The total effect of these pricing measures amounted to about $18 per tonne—many times greater than that of the tariff reduction, IEDT concluded. Moreover, tariff reductions would directly affect Russian Railways’ investment program, which would have a delayed negative impact on the coal industry itself, analysts note.

“If prices return to a level favorable for coal companies, then with a reduced investment program we will face a situation where the necessary throughput capacities along key export corridors will simply not be available,” said Pavel Shestakov, Deputy General Director of IEDT, at the conference ‘Russia’s Coal Industry: There Is a Way Forward’.

Full article available on the Kommersant website.